Our Head of Engagement, Elen Notley summarises the key insights from the latest opinion poll which suggests a volatile political landscape ahead of the 2026 Senedd Election.
As we mark exactly one year until the 2026 Senedd Election, ITV Cymru Wales hosted a timely and insightful discussion at the Senedd, unveiling their latest Barn Cymru opinion poll. With sharp shifts in voter sentiment and the introduction of a new polling method, the event highlighted the changing tides of Welsh politics and the vital need for general understanding and engagement.
Chaired by ITV Cymru Wales’ Political Editor, Adrian Masters, the panel featured Dr Jac Larner from Cardiff University and Jess Blair, Director of the Electoral Reform Society Wales. Together, they dissected a poll that paints a picture of an uncertain political landscape.
THE LATEST INSIGHTS
The poll projections suggest a seismic shift:
- Plaid Cymru: 35 seats
- Reform UK: 30 seats
- Labour: 19 seats
- Conservatives: 9 seats
- Liberal Democrats: 3 seats
- Greens: 0 seats (with potential for gaining 1)
The most striking trend is the dramatic drop in Labour support and the rise of Reform UK, with many previous Conservative voters now backing Reform. Meanwhile, Plaid Cymru is benefiting from a significant shift among former Labour voters, with 33% of those who previously voted Labour now indicating a switch to Plaid.
Jess Blair highlighted the ‘huge amount of volatility’ in voter intentions and warned parties not to be complacent or overly anxious, as the landscape could shift again before election day. Dr Jac Larner noted that voters often prefer to back perceived front-runners, meaning that polls themselves can influence voter behaviour.
The poll suggests that a coalition government is very likely. This gives the voluntary sector more chances to influence more than one party to achieve shared goals. But it also means more time and energy will be needed to build those relationships.
Also, with Labour polling poorly and many current Labour MSs not standing again, there will be lots of new Senedd members to work with. Some may know little about the sector, while others may have worked in it. We will need to quickly build relationships and share what the sector does.
THE CHALLENGE OF CHANGE
With changes to the voting system on the horizon, another key concern is communication. Voters will now be choosing parties rather than individual candidates. Ensuring people understand this change before they enter the polling booth is essential. There is a shared concern that without clear messaging, confusion could be detrimental.
We as a sector have a key role in connecting with people who feel left out or ignored. This is our chance to help more people get involved in democracy and to bring their voices into political discussions.
ROOM FOR COLLABORATION?
While the numbers suggest that Plaid Cymru, Labour and the Liberal Democrats could form a governing majority, the panel noted that openness about potential coalitions will be key. Interestingly, while Reform voters strongly oppose a tie-up with the Conservatives, there is broader acceptance among Plaid, Labour and Lib Dem supporters for collaborative working.
ITV Cymru plans at least one more poll this year, and if current trends are any indication, the story of this election is far from written.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE VOLUNTARY SECTOR?
As the political landscape evolves, the voluntary sector must prepare for new dynamics in the Senedd. With heightened volatility, clear and inclusive political engagement becomes more important. Organisations can help by communicating the voting system changes to their service users and encourage participation, especially among underrepresented communities.
The path to 2026 is paved with uncertainty, but also opportunity. By staying informed and involved, the voluntary sector can help shape a more inclusive and participatory democracy in Wales.
NEXT STEPS
Want to learn more about what the changes to the Senedd election system could mean for your organisation and the communities you support?
Join us at gofod3 for the event Senedd 2026: Changes, Impact and Manifestos. This session will explore the upcoming reforms, how they could affect the sector, and what to expect from party manifestos as we approach the election.
To find out more and register, please visit the gofod3 website.