Our Head of Engagement, Elen Notley summarises the key insights from the latest opinion poll which suggests a fundamental shift in Welsh politics.
When I wrote in May about how unpredictable Welsh politics had become, we were already seeing unusual trends. But the latest poll – released in January by ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University – shows something even bigger might be happening: a real shift in how people in Wales want to be represented.
The impact of this change on the voluntary sector is likely to be significant because changes in who holds power. This will shape policy decisions on health services, the cost of living, community support, and the funding environment for charities and volunteers.
WHAT THE NEW POLL SHOWS
Here are the key figures from the latest YouGov poll:
- Plaid Cymru are now polling at 37%, up from 30% last autumn.
- Reform UK have fallen to 23%, down from 29%.
- The Wales Green Party has jumped to 13% – overtaking Labour for the first time.
- Welsh Labour are at just 10% – their lowest polling result in Wales
- The Welsh Conservatives are also on 10%, and the Welsh Liberal Democrats on 5%.
These figures show a big shift compared to earlier polling, which indicated a much tighter contest.
WHAT THE SHIFT COULD MEAN
We are less than four months away from the 7 May Senedd election, when people in Wales will choose 96 Members of the Senedd (MSs) – a huge increase from the current 60 seats.
If the votes cast on election day match the predictions of the latest poll:
- Plaid Cymru could win around 45 seats, putting them in a strong minority government position. They could also form a majority government with the Wales Green Party or Welsh Labour.
- Reform UK would become the biggest party in opposition.
That would be a very different outcome to past elections, where Labour was the dominant party since devolution began.
WHY THIS MATTERS FOR THE VOLUNTARY SECTOR
You might be wondering: Why should voluntary sector organisations care about polls?
Here are three reasons:
- Policy priorities shape funding and services
The poll suggests people in Wales are thinking differently about key issues such as health, cost of living, inflation and immigration. These are all areas that affect voluntary sector work, from health advocacy to community support. - Who leads matters for partnership working
A change in who has political power changes who you work with. New leadership or new alliances in the Senedd may mean new priorities, new funding streams, and new ways of working. Charities need to be ready for those shifts. - There will be many new faces
Changes to our electoral system and people’s attitudes mean that newer and smaller parties are more popular than ever. We could see a Senedd in which neither Welsh Labour nor the Welsh Conservatives hold significant vote share. Many MSs who have championed the voluntary sector for many years are also standing down.
Carrying on with business as usual without understanding these trends could leave charities behind the curve when decisions are made later this year.
WHAT THE EXPERTS ARE SAYING
At the recent event hosted by ITV at the Senedd, expert academics pointed out that:
- A lot of the gains for Plaid Cymru and the Wales Green Party are coming from voters who were previously unsure.
- Reform UK’s rise earlier in 2025 may now be slowing – or reaching a ‘ceiling’.
- Tactical voting, like what we saw in the Caerphilly by-election, is likely to continue playing a part in May.
All of this shows that the election is not just about parties rising and falling – it’s about how people in Wales feel about politics, trust leaders, and want change.
WHAT COMES NEXT
We will see more polls during the campaign, and they will help sharpen our picture of what might happen in May. Polls closer to election day are usually more accurate, but the trends right now are hard to ignore.
For the voluntary sector, that means:
- Keeping up-to-date with changes.
- Thinking about how different policy outcomes could affect your work.
- Being ready to engage with whoever is in government and opposition after the election.
WHAT WCVA IS DOING IN THIS SPACE
We’re continuing to garner support both within the sector and across the political spectrum for our manifesto ask, so that whoever ends up holding power post-May recognises the voluntary sector as a fundamental partner for progress.
Stay informed as things unfold by signing up to our newsletter to get the latest updates, webinars and events being organised by WCVA in the lead-up to the election.
JOIN WCVA AS A PARTNER
Are you interested in creating a better future and improving wellbeing for all in Wales?
We believe we can make a bigger difference together so why not join us and our growing network of organisations across Wales?
Our partnership is free and open to any charity, voluntary group, community group, or social enterprise working in Wales. Find out more and apply here.
If you are a private or public sector organisation or an individual who shares our vision and wish to support voluntary action in Wales, you can also benefit by becoming an affiliate partner.